The 1Q 2023 earnings season is underway, with the large U.S. banks releasing results last Friday. Current analyst estimates are tracking operating earnings per share (EPS) of $49.54 ($39.73 ex-financials), representing y/y growth of 0.4% and a q/q decline of 1.6%.
The U.S. Federal Reserve raised rates aggressively to fight inflation, battering both equity and fixed income investments. By year-end, those efforts helped to bring inflation from a peak of 9.1% in mid-2022 to 6.0% in February 2023, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The unemployment rate decreased to 3.5% in March, well below the long-term average of 6.2%. However, total nonfarm employment only grew by 236k, a notable deceleration from the prior month, and wage growth decelerated to 4.2% y/y.
Market volatility persisted during 1Q23, but several of 2022’s underperformers experienced a notable turnaround, highlighting investors’ willingness to look beyond near-term challenges and to front run a dovish shift in monetary policy…