Imagine going back in time to New Year’s Day 2020 and learning in advance about the biggest events over the next five years. The COVID-19 pandemic. A steep bear market. Inflation above 9%. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. A trade war with China. Political uncertainty in the U.S. With that knowledge, would you want to invest in stocks? Probably not.

“In my 25 years in the mutual fund business, I have never known a good time to invest. There are always a dozen reasons why it makes sense to wait. We have a new president, strife in the Middle East, excessive government regulation, oppressive tax rates and a Congress that is more part of the problem than the solution,” said former Capital Group executive Graham Holloway.

Although that may sound like a reflection of the current environment, Holloway’s quote is from 1981.

The point is there are always reasons not to invest, and that’s no different today than it was in 2020 or 1981. But markets have been resilient over time. And investors have typically been rewarded for overlooking near-term uncertainty and keeping focus on their long-term investment goals.

So, going back to New Year’s 2020, what would have happened if you ignored all the troubling events on the horizon and stayed invested? Since then, the S&P 500 Index has risen more than 100%.

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Credit: Capital Group