Market Week: March 27, 2023

The week in review

FOMC hiked rates 0.25% to a range of 4.75%-5.0%
Existing home sales jumped to 4.6M from 4.0M
Prelim. March PMI Composite rose to 53.3 from 50.1

The week ahead

PCE inflation
Personal income and consumer spending

Thought of the week

March madness had a different connotation this year as investors faced market volatility and renewed uncertainties brought upon by a regional bank crisis. Last week, the March FOMC meeting revealed a cautious but steadfast Fed, with an additional 25bp rate hike but dovish forward guidance signaling a forthcoming end to the hiking cycle. Now over a year into tightening, the Fed has raised rates by 4.75%, well into restrictive territory, and financial conditions have tightened meaningfully, with housing, manufacturing and markets all experiencing corrections in the past year. A further tightening in lending standards due to banking system pressures looks set to do the rest of the Fed’s job for them, dragging on economic growth and inflation but reducing the risk of further rate hikes.

While the odds of a U.S. recession have increased in light of all this, the risk outlook for the markets is becoming more balanced. Monetary policy should pose less of a headwind for stocks going forward. Economic data is moving in the right direction and the slowdown in inflation, wages and activity should become more pronounced in the coming months. Moreover, if the outlook worsens, the Fed could ease monetary policy, which could provide significant support to financial markets. Meanwhile, the investment landscape still presents opportunities. Bonds can provide portfolios with attractive income and some capital appreciation when the Fed eventually cuts rates. An emphasis on quality is important, but broadly speaking, equity markets tend to perform well in the 12 months following an end of a tightening cycle, as shown in the chart. By no means are we looking at clear skies yet, but calmer waters after a tumultuous March could provide support for balanced portfolios in the remainder of the year.

Click here to download a PDF of this report.

Categories

Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. E2E Financial is another business name of Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC. All investment advice is offered through Independent Advisor Alliance LLC, a registered investment advisor. Independent Advisor Alliance is a separate entity from LPL Financial.

The information contained in this e-mail message is being transmitted to and is intended for the use of only the individual(s) to whom it is addressed. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are hereby advised that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this message is strictly prohibited. If you have received this message in error, please immediately delete.

This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax or legal advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific situation with a qualified tax or legal advisor.

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. Investing involves risk including the possible loss of principal.

The S&P 500 is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index represents the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market. This index is unmanaged, and its results include reinvested dividends and/or distributions but do not reflect the effect of sales charges, commissions, account fees, expenses or U.S. federal income taxes.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Market Index captures broad US equity coverage. The index includes 3,204 constituents across large, mid, small and micro capitalizations, about 99% of the US equity universe. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.
International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.