In 1Q23, nearly 44 million Americans owed more than $1.6 trillion in federal student loan debt and, according to Moody’s, these borrowers will be faced with an average $250 monthly payment once payments resume.

Given a gradual slowdown in growth and inflation and the fact that we have yet to see the full effect of the cumulative 500bps of hikes so far, the Fed would be well advised to pause at this point.

The May employment report showed a net creation of 339,000 jobs, above expectations and an uptick compared to April’s 264,000. Some signs of softness included a move higher of 0.3% in the unemployment rate to 3.7%. In addition, wage growth eased to 0.3% m/m, bringing the year-over-year rate down to 4.3%.

10-year Treasury yields have climbed by roughly 38bps to 3.80% in May, their highest level since SVB collapsed, reflecting the market’s improved optimism for economic growth and shifting expectations for monetary policy.

Following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) decision to raise the federal funds rate to a range of 5.00%-5.25%, investors scoured April’s CPI report and the 1Q Senior Loan Officer Survey in an attempt to get a sense of the Fed’s next steps.

Recent data have shown a loss of economic momentum, with declining job openings, tightening lending conditions and surveys indicating lower business spending and hiring plans..

The week in review Consumer confidence fell to 101.3 Prelim. 1Q23 GDP came in below consensus at 1.1% Headline/Core PCE: 4.2%/4.6% y/y The week ahead FOMC meeting JOLTS Mfg. and services PMIs Employment Thought of the week At the March meeting, 17 out of 18 FOMC...

On the back of rising mortgage rates, construction activity cratered in 2H 2022, with housing starts falling by 40% and 14% annualized in 3Q22 and 4Q22, respectively…

The 1Q 2023 earnings season is underway, with the large U.S. banks releasing results last Friday. Current analyst estimates are tracking operating earnings per share (EPS) of $49.54 ($39.73 ex-financials), representing y/y growth of 0.4% and a q/q decline of 1.6%.

The unemployment rate decreased to 3.5% in March, well below the long-term average of 6.2%. However, total nonfarm employment only grew by 236k, a notable deceleration from the prior month, and wage growth decelerated to 4.2% y/y.