As global events continue to unfold, staying grounded in long-term planning is key.
This article from our strategic partner, Capital Group, highlights several potential long-term impacts of the conflict in Iran. Providing helpful perspective on how geopolitical events can influence markets and reinforces the value of staying grounded in times of uncertainty.
Tom Cooney, former US diplomat, shares his insight on four long-term implications of the Iran war:
“1. Weaponization of economic choke points
Iran’s ability to control the Strait of Hormuz with little more than inexpensive drones, mines and short-range missiles shows how easily narrow waterways can be weaponized. The strait is just one example of a choke point where, by virtue of simple geography and a moderate investment in drones, countries can claim “sovereignty” over a key choke point and effectively cripple supply chains with great harm to the global economy.
2. Energy diversification and independence are existential
With oil trapped in the Persian Gulf, several countries particularly in Asia have been forced to ration energy and institute COVID-like restrictions, such as work-from-home requirements. As such, the Iran war is just the latest crisis to highlight that energy security is national security.
3. Drones help David stand taller against Goliath
The nature of warfare changes quickly, and one of the worst mistakes a country can make is to be prepared to fight “the last war” instead of potential conflicts ahead. The wars of this decade in Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Iran have shown that drones can be cheap, effective and scalable alternatives to more expensive weapons.
4. U.S. not withdrawing from world; still seeks to shape it
Despite the debate about what the core principles of an “America First” policy are, the war reinforces the reality that the U.S. has not become isolationist and will remain an active player in global affairs. The U.S. National Security Strategy released in 2025 declares aspirations to focus on the Western Hemisphere and de-emphasize involvement in the Middle East, but 2026 has already amply demonstrated that even under the America First administration of President Trump, the U.S. is not reluctant to project power far from home in pursuit of declared policy interests. America’s economic scale, military reach and central role in global financial systems make decoupling difficult.
The road ahead for at least the next decade will likely be marked by polarization, uncertainty, and a further breakdown in the liberal world order of multilateral institutions that has largely reigned since the end of World War II. Despite these challenges and the likelihood of additional economic and military crises, I believe the great powers firmly seek to avoid catastrophic military conflict directly among themselves. That is a cause for hope that points to the eventual construction of a new world order and a peaceful, stable new normal over time.”
If recent headlines have you questioning your current investment strategy, I encourage you to reach out. We’d be happy to offer a second opinion and help you think through what these developments may mean for your portfolio. Schedule a complimentary consultation.
To read the full article, click here.
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