We make it our mission to constantly stay informed to better serve our current (and future😉) clients. During today’s conversation with JPMorgan about The investment implications of the U.S. strike against Iran here are our 6 biggest takeaways:

1. Geopolitical Backdrop Derek Chollet explained that the strikes reflect the culmination of years of tension. The death of Iran’s supreme leader and other senior figures could open up an internal power vacuum. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps remains dominant, but experts believe this could be a pivotal moment for Iran’s regime. While diplomacy is currently in the back seat, the U.S. strategy seems focused on weakening Iran’s capability to project power and potentially prompting regime-level change.

2. Short-Term Disruption and Regional Impacts There was emphasis on short-term volatility across Middle Eastern economies and markets due to attacks affecting nine different countries, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, and possible strikes on oil infrastructure. Insurance and shipping costs are expected to rise, but whether military inventories or armaments become depleted will determine how long these hostilities persist.

3. Oil Market Dynamics Oil prices have already moved from roughly $71 to the mid-to-high $70 range. Scenarios suggest if the conflict is contained, prices could drift to $80–$85. However, a more prolonged or disruptive conflict could push oil above $100, with significant implications for global inflation and growth. The group discussed how stockpiles, length of conflict, and infrastructure damage loom as key factors.

4. Potential Effects on Growth, Inflation, and Policy The main impact of higher oil prices in the U.S. may show up more in inflation than in growth, given that the U.S. is now a net exporter of petroleum. There could be further defense spending and stimulus measures (including possible tariff rebate checks) to protect households from energy-related shocks. While the Federal Reserve would likely “look through” temporary spikes in energy prices, small adjustments in interest rates remain on the table. Fiscal deficits could rise with any extended military activity.

5. Portfolio Strategy and Diversification Dr. David Kelly advised diversifying portfolios to manage “fat tail” risks. Concentrated exposure to large-cap growth or high-valuation technology stocks could increase vulnerability. Gold was discussed as a highly speculative hedge asset; however, participants noted that the long-term benefits of broad diversification, including international and alternative exposures, remain the more prudent approach.

6. Additional Global Geopolitical Considerations Derek Chollet predicted that China would not overtly intervene. Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine and lack of resources to assist Iran underscores potential limits to other major power alliances. The group concluded that the biggest risk for the remainder of 2026 might be the ongoing “rewiring” of global trade and alliances, along with persistent geopolitical tensions.

If you would like more info on our insights feel free to respond to this email. If you would like a second look at your portfolio schedule a complimentary consultation with us!

And as always, your weekly market update is here.